趣意

「Flattening the curve」(曲線をたいらにする)とは、感染症患者のオーバーシュート(爆発的拡大)を防ぎ、感染者数のピークを抑えることで医療システムの崩壊を避けるスローガンです。急激な感染者数の増加に伴い多数の人々が一気に病院に押しかけてしまうと、病院の対応能力を越えてしまい、感染症以外の患者さんへの対応も含め医療システムが崩壊する可能性があります。イタリアでの死者数が多いのもこの現象によるものです。医療機関で受け入れ可能な感染規模を維持し続けることにより、治療薬やワクチン開発の時間を稼ぐことができます。


オーバーシュート対策として有効な考え方が「social distancing」(社会距離戦略)です。社会距離戦略は、ウィルス感染を防ぐために人と人の間に安全な距離をとる方策を意味します。

例えば
・人が集まるイベントを自粛
・学校を休校にする
・在宅勤務に切り替える
・人混みを避け、人との接触を避ける
などがあります。

海外、特にヨーロッパでは、外出禁止令が出されるなど、厳しい対応もみられます。日本では、強制力はないものの「不要不急」の外出を控えるよう自粛要請がなされています。さらに、外出をする場合は、3つの「密」を避けるように呼びかけています。
・換気の悪い密閉場所
・多数が集まる密集場所
・間近で会話や発声をする密接場所

すでに、ライブハウスやスポーツジムなど、クラスター発生の実績がよく知られている場所については、実施の自粛や注意して利用することで対応が可能です。しかし、あまり知られていない潜在的なリスクを持つ場所や逆に安全にも関わらず過度に自粛する状況が起きている可能性があります。各人が正しく判断し行動に移すためには、現状のような曖昧な状態ではなく、具体的な事実を俯瞰して理解することが重要と考えます。

そこで、Phase2では、Phase1で得られたデータをもとに、社会距離戦略の意思決定に資する(少なくとも議論の題材になる)データ分析を目指します。データ分析の過程における、不足データや分析困難なフィールドについては、Phase1にフィードバックし、データ収集や構造化を進めていきます。ただし、報道ベースのデータ収集では情報精度に限界がありますので、確実に実施可能(新規データ追加に関しては収集可能であることが確認されているもの)なもののみフィードバック願います。

また、Phase1のデータ設計・収集は継続して進行中です。マスターデータ等の整理や外部データとの統合を検討しています。よって、データ構造が予告なく変更になることがあります。予めご了承願います。
Phase1 SIGNATE COVID-2019 Dataset
※アクセス負荷の軽減等を目的に、データセットのスナップショット(閲覧専用)も毎日0:00-1:00の間に取得しています。分析の際に、必要に応じてこちらも活用ください。

分析結果の外部公開に際しては以下を記載いただくか、URL<https://signate.jp/competitions/261#misc>を引用願います。

本分析に用いたデータセットsignate covid-19 datasetは、現在、収集途中のものであり、データの正確性を保証するものではありません。また、本データセットは基本的に厚労省・自治体等の報道における症例データに基づいて作成されており、各種機関が発表している統計データと一致しないことがあります。予めご了承ください。

データ分析に際しては、外部データやツールの活用も検討願います。SIGNATE COVID-19 Challengeに協賛いただいている組織はコチラになります。通常有償のデータやツールも本チャレンジのために無償でご提供いただいております。ご活用ください。

本チャレンジに貢献いただいた方は、著者メンバーの一員としてクレジットされます。皆様のご協力をいただければ幸いです。

COVID-19 Challenge 総合サイト


期待する分析例:感染状況の把握

【基礎統計】
都道府県別、年代別、性別、職業、各種フラグ、濃厚接触者等、またその組み合わせによる各種統計実態(総数や一人当たり)およびトランザクションによる時間的推移を検討。可視化による情報の俯瞰的理解、層別比較や海外データとの比較によるインサイトを抽出。
・罹患者数
・死亡者数
・医療機関受診回数
・検査回数(COVID-19、インフルエンザ、CT、etc)
・自宅待機日数
・利用した公共交通分布
・クラスターサイズ
・体温分布
・症状分布
・発熱観察日、受診日、 公表日、回復日、死亡日による期間分析
・海外由来、国内感染の状況
など

【罹患者関係性】
感染者同士や場所、感染経路と拡大など、罹患者属性や地理的属性、時間的推移を検討。可視化による情報の俯瞰的理解、層別比較や海外データとの比較によるインサイトを抽出。
・罹患者ネットワーク
・罹患者と場所のネットワーク
・ネットワークトポロジー、時間的変化
など

【インサイト】
上記のような分析の結果、得られたインサイトや仮説、そこから導かれるアクション等を検討願います。目的は感染者爆発の抑制に貢献するインサイト抽出です。必ずしも高度な可視化技術・統計解析技術を求めません(もちろん、それらも大歓迎です)。また、直接課題解決につながらなくても、できる範囲で分析を蓄積していきたいと考えます。
例えば、非常に簡単な分析例「日本においても海外と同様、新型コロナウィルスの罹患者・死者は男性の方が女性よりも多い。」をフォーラムに示します。気軽に参加しましょう!

【ギャラリー】
SIGNATE COVID-19 Challengeの取り組みで創作された分析例(可視化・ダッシュボード、インサイト・仮説など)はこちらにリストしていきます。

<可視化>
・SIGNATE:SIGNATE COVID-19 Challenge 基本統計ダッシュボード
・Naoko Ozakiさん:SIGNATE #COVID19 Cases Dashbord
・Su Weiさん:クラスターネットワーク
・渡辺 知恵美さん:クラスタの連鎖状況の可視化
・Yuki Nakamuraさん:都道府県別の感染者傾向

<インサイト>
・SIGNATE:日本においても海外と同様、新型コロナウィルスの罹患者・死者は男性の方が女性よりも多い。


<主催>
●株式会社SIGNATE
https://signate.jp/covid-19-challenge/

※以下の企業・団体様のご協力、応援に心より感謝申し上げます。


<データ・ツール協力>※敬称略
●株式会社ウェザーニューズ
株式会社ウェザーニューズはこの活動を応援しています。また、当社も、ウィルスの活動度と気象に関係性を調べる方向けにデータを公開しておりますので、ぜひご活用ください。
https://weathernews.jp/s/covid19-weather/

観光予報プラットフォーム推進協議会
観光予報プラットフォーム推進協議会はこの活動を応援しています。また、私たちも、「訪日外国人の宿泊者の推移」ダッシュボード等を公開しておりますので、ぜひご覧ください。
・観光予報:https://kankouyohou.com/
・観光予報DS:https://learning-steam-ds.kankouyohou.com/
・経済産業省「未来の教室」:https://www.learning-innovation.go.jp/covid_19/kankouyohou/

●ジャッグジャパン株式会社
ジャッグジャパン株式会社はこの活動を応援しています。また、私たちも、「都道府県別新型コロナウイルス感染者数マップ」を公開しておりますので、ぜひご覧ください。
https://gis.jag-japan.com/covid19jp/

●DataRobot, Inc.
DataRobotはこの活動を応援しており、「DataRobot AutoMLの無料ライセンス提供」を実施しております。ぜひご活用ください。
COVID-19 分析官向け無料プログラム
分析官向け無料プログラムオンラインセミナー


<紹介・分析協力>※敬称略
connectome.design株式会社
コネクトーム・デザイン株式会社はSIGNATEの考え方に賛同し、この活動を応援します。多くの技術者に活動を紹介するとともに、解析のお手伝いを致します。
COVID-19チャレンジへの協力について
COVID-19 Data Exploration Tool

●株式会社リコー(リコー経済社会研究所)
http://blog.ricoh.co.jp/RISB/technology/post_542.html

●筑波大学大学院 サービス工学学位プログラム/筑波大学システム情報系社会工学域 岡田幸彦研究室
https://www.sk.tsukuba.ac.jp/PPS/

COVID-19 ENGR
イベント開催「30分でランチ勉強!コロナ関連情報一元化!SIGNATE COVID-19 チャレンジのご紹介」
https://power-covid19.connpass.com/event/173277/
(公式URL)https://www.covid19engr.com/


<メディア協力>
※敬称略
Ledge.aihttps://ledge.ai/covid-19-challenge/
AINOWhttps://ainow.ai/2020/03/20/192930/

情報公開ポリシー

本チャレンジの成果物は営利・非営利を問わずご利用いただけます。成果物を改変したものも共有いただけますが、下記のライセンスを継承するものとします。

Creative Comons 表示 - 継承 4.0 国際
クリエイティブ・コモンズ・ライセンス


本成果物の利用時には以下を引用願います。また、利用内容の概要とともにこちらまでご利用の旨、ご連絡いただければと存じます。
データ名:SIGNATE COVID-19 Dataset
URL:https://bit.ly/signate_covid-19_dataset

分析結果の外部公開に際しては以下を記載願います。

本分析に用いたデータセットsignate covid-19 datasetは、現在、収集途中のものであり、データの正確性を保証するものではありません。また、本データセットは基本的に厚労省・自治体等の報道における症例データに基づいて作成されており、各種機関が発表している統計データと一致しないことがあります。予めご了承ください。

Disclosure policy

As a general rule, in accordance with Article 4, Paragraph 1 of the terms of participation, diclosing any contents such as insights and deliverables transmitted through the information or data provided by our company in relation to this competition is not permitted, however, only after the completion of this competition and for non-commercial purposes, it will be possible to disclose the contents within the score of the table below
Model *1
Private
Analysis results *2
Private
Public : Posting to social media sites, blogs and source repositories, and citing to papers
Restricted : Using in a limited range from research, education to seminars, where many unspecified people cannot access
*1 Execution unit source code and learned models
*2 The insights obtained using the information and data provided, or the solutions including scripts and processed data such as summary statistics

本取り組みにおいては、下記の規約への同意は不要となります。ただし、「趣意」に同意の上、タスクの内容を理解し、「ルール」に従って参加いただきたく存じます。また、情報の公開については、「情報公開ポリシー」に記載する内容を遵守願います。


In order to participate in the Competitions, you are required to agree to these Terms, in addition to the Terms of Use of SIGNATE.JP Site (hereinafter referred to as the "Terms of Use"). You should participate in the Competition after reading carefully and agreeing to these Terms. If you agree, these Terms, the matters that are added to these Terms as "additional matters", the Terms of Use and other terms and conditions that you have agreed to shall be binding on the relevant parties as integral documents.


Article 1. Definitions

1.For the purpose of these Terms, the following terms shall be defined as follows:

(1)"Site" means the website "SIGNATE (https://signate.jp)" on which the Competitions are posted.
(2)"Competition" means any competition on AI development or data analysis on the Site as held by the Host.
(3)"Host" is the host(s) of the Competitions. The Host may be SIGNATE, Inc. (hereinafter referred to as the "Company") or the Company’s client companies, affiliated companies, schools or organizations, etc. (hereinafter referred to as the "Client(s)").
(4)"Participant(s)" means the member(s) who participate in a Competition.
(5)"Submissions" means, collectively, the analysis and prediction results and reports, etc. as submitted in the Competition.
(6)"Final Submissions" means the Submissions that are specified by a Participant on the prescribed page in the Site by the time of completion of a Competition.
(7)"Winner Candidate" means the Participant who has received a notice from the Company that he/she is nominated as a winner candidate.
(8)"Submissions for Final Judgment" means the analysis and prediction model and learning data, etc. as submitted by a Winner Candidate pursuant to the instructions of the Company.
(9)"Final Judgment" means the acceptance inspection and judgment, including reproducibility verification, by the Company for the Final Submissions and Submissions for Final Judgment of a Winner Candidate.
(10)"Winner" means the Winner Candidate who is informed by the Company that he/she has won a prize.
2.Unless otherwise defined in these Terms, the terms used in these Terms that are defined in the Terms of Use shall have the same meaning as defined in the Terms of Use.

Article 2. Competition

1.A member who desires to participate in a Competition shall be required to agree to these Terms and to satisfy the conditions for participation as specified in each such Competition. Any person who is not a member shall not participate in any Competition.
2.Participants shall participate in each Competition in the manner as advised by the Company and shall be obligated to comply with the rules as prescribed in each Competition.
3.Participants may submit the Submissions for the assignment of each Competition during the period of such Competition and submit a proposal on the method of solving the problem to the Host by the end of the period of the said Competition.
4.Participants may submit the Final Submissions in the form specified in each Competition by the time specified by the said Competition.
5.The Final Submissions as submitted shall be evaluated by the evaluation method as specified in each Competition and the final rank order shall be determined based on such evaluation.
6.Any Participant may, as a general rule, check the evaluation results of the Participant him/herself and each of the other Participants on the Site for the Submissions that may be evaluated quantitatively.
7.Participants shall be liable or otherwise responsible for their own Submissions, including their legality.
8.Participants shall not submit any Submissions that have no direct relationship to each Competition.
9.Unless otherwise provided for, Participants shall not directly communicate to, consult with, make a request to, solicit or take any other actions with the Host in respect of the matters related to a Competition during the period of the said Competition.
10.Any Participant who has uncertainty or questions about any Competition shall make sure to contact the Company or its designee through the procedures prescribed by the Company as posted on the Site.
11.The Company shall not be obligated to pay any remuneration or other consideration other than those prescribed in the following Article for any act of the Participants as prescribed in paragraphs hereof.

Article 3. Reward and Vesting of Rights

1.Unless otherwise provided for, any Participant shall satisfy the following requirements in order to be entitled to receive a reward in any Competition that offers a reward:

(1)To be a winner;
(2)To agree to transfer to the Host and the relevant transferee of rights in such Competition all transferable rights, such as copyrights, rights to obtain patents and know-how, etc. in and to all analysis and prediction results, reports, analysis and prediction model, algorithm, source code and documentations for the model reproducibility, etc., and the Submissions contained in the Final Submissions and Submissions for Final Judgment (including the rights as prescribed in Article 27 and Article 28 of the Copyright Act and the rights to obtain patents; hereinafter referred to as the "Rights");
(3)To agree that any relevant transferee of rights exclusively has the right to use the know-how contained in the Final Submissions and Submissions for Final Judgment for its own business and other purpose without any restriction;
(4)To agree not to exercise moral rights to the Rights against the relevant transferee of rights;
(5)To enter into an agreement for the transfer of the Rights with the relevant eligible transferee of rights, including the agreement to the matter in the preceding three (3) items and other reasonable provisions;
(6)To have the personal identity of such Participant verified by the Company.
(7)Not to breach any provision of these Terms and the Terms of Use.

2.Any Winner Candidate shall, after having received a notice from the Company that he/she is nominated as a winner candidate, submit the Submissions for Final Judgment on or before the designated date and communicate the matters requiring confirmation or response in relation to the Final Submissions and the Submissions for Final Judgment to the Company on or before the designated date, in accordance with the instructions of the Company. The Company shall carry out the final judgment based on such matters requiring confirmation or response. If the Company receives no confirmation or response satisfactory to the Company on or before the designated date, the Company may exclude such Winner Candidate from the subject of the final judgment.
3.If the Company considers that the Final Submissions or Submissions for Final Judgment need to be amended or modified, or there occur any additional matters requiring confirmation, in the course of the final judgment, any Winner Candidate shall take action or make response in relation to the matters that require amendment, etc. or the detailed information on the matters requiring confirmation, on or before the designated date in accordance with the instructions of the Company. If the Company receives no action or response satisfactory to the Company on or before the designated date, the Company may exclude such Winner Candidate from the final judgment.
4.The Company shall determine the Winner through the final judgment and inform the Winner to that effect.

Article 4. Confidentiality

1.Participants shall treat any information, data, or such contents as insights and deliverables transmitted through the service where they receive from the Company in relation to each Competition (hereinafter referred to as the "Company-Provided Information") as confidential information and shall not disclose the same to any third party and use the same for any purpose other than for such Competition and purpose specified by the Company separately; provided, however, that the confidential information shall not include any information that falls under any of the following items:

(1)Information that is known to the public at the time of the disclosure;
(2)Information that is already possessed by the Participant at the time of the disclosure (only in the case where such Participant may demonstrate such fact by reasonable means);
(3)Information that becomes known to the public without the fault of the Participant after the disclosure;
(4)Information that is independently developed by the Participant without reference to any information as disclosed (except for those Submissions of the person eligible for a prize which are evaluated); or
(5)Information that is rightfully disclosed by any third party having a right to do so without the obligations of confidentiality (only in the case where such Participant may demonstrate such fact by reasonable means).

2.Any Participant shall delete or return to the Company the Company-Provided Information immediately after the completion of each Competition.
3.Any Winner shall handle his/her Final Submissions and Submissions for Final Judgment in the same manner as prescribed in paragraph 1 hereof.
4.If there is any separate arrangement in relation to the confidential information in each Competition, the provisions of such arrangement shall prevail over the provisions of these Terms.
5.If any dispute occurs between the Host or other third party and the Company due to the breach by any Participant of the provisions of this Article and such other party makes any claim against the Company, such Participant shall compensate for any damage, loss, expenses (including, but not limited to, attorneys’ fees), lost profits and lost revenues, etc. incurred by the Company.
6.The provisions of this Article shall survive the termination of the relevant Competition or the Participant’s completion of the procedures for withdrawal from the service of the Company, with respect to the Company-Provided Information and the Winner’s Final Submissions and Submissions for Final Judgment for a period of five (5) years thereafter.

Article 5. Prohibited Acts of Participants

1.The Company shall prohibit Participants from engaging in any of the following acts in any Competition:

(1)An act of cracking, cheating, spoofing other misconduct;
(2)An act of directly communicating to, consulting with, making a request to, soliciting or responding to solicitation or other activities to other Participants or the Host (other than the Company) without the involvement of the Company;
(3)Any profitmaking activities using the Competition (including solicitation or scouting activities, and use for a third party in educational business, etc.) without the prior approval of the Company in writing or any other manner specified by the Company;
(4)Transfer, offering as collateral or other disposition of the status as a Participant or the rights or obligations as a Participant (except with the prior written consent of the Company); and
(5)Any other act in breach of the Terms of Use.

2.If the Company deems that a Participant engages in any of the prohibited acts as prescribed in the preceding paragraph, the Company may, without prior notice to the Participant, disqualify the Participant from the Competition in which the Participant participates, temporarily suspend the Participant from using the service of the Company, withdraw the Participant’s membership, claim damages from the Participant or take any other measures deemed necessary by the Company.

Article 6. Change, Discontinuation or Termination of Provision of Services under These Terms

1.The Company may change or temporarily suspend the services provided by the Company under these Terms without prior notice to the members.
2.Upon one (1) month prior notice to the members, the Company may suspend for a long period of time or terminate the services provided by the Company under these Terms.
3.The Company shall not be liable for any results or damage arising from the measures taken by the Company under this Article.

Article 7. Modification of Terms

1.The Company may modify, add or delete any provisions of these Terms from time to time without the approval of the members.

Enforced on April 1, 2018
Last updated on January 18, 2019